International Current Affairs

Singapore hosted the 33rd ASEAN Summit and Related Summits at Suntec Singapore Convention Centre from 11 to 15 November 2018. The Summits were chaired by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. PM Lee had a Working Dinner with ASEAN leadersm as well as Summits with China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and the United States. He also had Bilateral Meetings with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, Australian PM Scott Morrison, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, and Indian PM Narendra Modi. He also had pull asides with New Zealand PM Jacinda Arden, and Chilean President Sebastian Pinera. Apart from leaders of all 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, heads of 8 key partner nations of ASEAN also participated. Over 400 companies from over 100 countries took part as exhibitors in the summit. The leaders of ASEAN’s 10 member countries reviewed ASEAN’s achievements in the year 2018 while mapping out a new course for the year ahead.

The Summit began on November 13, 2018. The opening ceremony of the summit was addressed by Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore, Chairman of this year’s Summit. In his speech, Lee Hsien Loong called on ASEAN members and partners to uphold multilateralism and international cooperation and tackle common challenges including terrorism and climate change.

The Summit saw the presence of leaders of partner countries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

However, the US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were not in attendance. The Vice President Mike Pence represented the US, while the Chinese side was represented by Premier Li Keqiang.

Key Highlights

• ASEAN members reaffirmed their commitment to the full and effective implementation of the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and the ASEAN Leaders’ Vision for a Resilient and Innovative ASEAN.
• The members exchanged views on recent global and regional developments, and discussed how to take ASEAN forward at a time of rapid change.”
• Singapore Prime Minister, the outgoing Chairman, in his statement said, that the member countries have reviewed ASEAN’s progress in building a resilient and innovative Community, and deepening links with the rest of the world.
• The members also resolved to fully tap the opportunities arising from the digital revolution, while staying responsive to emerging issues, including non- traditional security threats and environmental challenges, and ensuring sustainable development.
• The ASEAN leaders adopted the ASEAN Smart Cities Framework and took stock of ASEAN’s achievements in 2018 in strengthening ASEAN’s resilience and innovation.
• The ASEAN leaders, along with their counterparts from countries participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), discussed the process of the RCEP negotiations at the 2nd RCEP Summit.
• The leaders also exchanged views on regional and international issues with their counterparts at the 21st ASEAN Plus Three Summit and 13th East Asia Summit.
• Singapore PM Lee handed over the ASEAN Chairmanship to Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

 Background

The ASEAN Summit is a semiannual meeting held by the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in relation to economic, political, security and socio-cultural development of Southeast Asian countries. In addition, it serves as a prominent regional (Asia) and international (worldwide) conference, with world leaders attending its related summits and meetings to discuss about various problems and global issues, strengthening cooperation, and making decisions. The league of ASEAN is currently connected with other countries who aimed to participate on the missions and visions of the league. Apparently, the league is conducting an annual meetings with other countries in an organisation collectively known as the ASEAN dialogue partners. ASEAN +3 adds China, Japan and South Korea. The First ASEAN summit was held February 1976 in Bali, Indonesia. At this summit, ASEAN expressed its readiness to “develop fruitful relations” and mutually beneficial co-operation with other countries of the region. The ASEAN leaders signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. On 2nd ASEAN summit held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 1977 was the occasion for the first summit meeting between Japan and ASEAN. Japan expressed its intention to promote co-operation with ASEAN.

The yellow vests movement  is a protest movement that started online in May 2018 and led to demonstrations that began in France on Saturday, 17 November 2018 and rapidly spread to Wallonia, the formerly heavily industrialised southern part of Belgium. France has experienced social unrest and massive protests across the country since then. The demonstrations were initially held to protest planned hikes in fuel taxes, but have since widened into a movement against the government’s economic policies. The next day Prime Minister Edouard Philippe says the government will not back down.

Why yellow vest?

The yellow vest was chosen as a symbol, because all motorists had been required by law (since 2008) to have high-visibility vests in their vehicles when driving (as a safety measure should the driver be required to exit the vehicle on the roadside). As a result, reflective vests have become widely available, inexpensive and symbolic. By early December 2018, the symbol had become increasingly common from Europe to Iraq, as different groups made use of their high-visibility vests to draw attention to their agendas.

Causes

Motivated by rising fuel prices, the high cost of living and claims that a disproportionate burden of the government’s tax reforms were falling on the working and middle classes (especially those in rural and peri-urban areas), protesters have called for reductions in fuel taxes, the reintroduction of the solidarity tax on wealth, the raising of the minimum wage, and the resignation of the President of France, Emmanuel Macron. Seizing on the momentum from the protests, students start demonstrating over education reforms, disrupting dozens of high schools every day from December 3.

Nature of the protest

The protests are being described by observers as spontaneous, and not organised by political parties or unions. The protest did not stop and spread to next week. The next protests took place the following Saturday, November 24 followed by December 01  and December 08. Thousands of demonstrators clashed with police on the Champs-Elysees in Paris.  The next day (December 02) Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said the government will not back down. Subsequently, violence broke out in the French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion, led mainly by armed youths. The third day of protests took place on Saturday, December 1, with widespread violence erupting particularly in Paris around the Arc de Triomphe and several upscale neighbourhoods. The government estimated that some 136,000 people protested across the country.

The efforts of government to quell the movement

On his return from the G20 summit in Argentina, Macron immediately calls a crisis meeting at the Elysee Palace on December 2. Philippe meets with political party leaders on December 3. Later, “Yellow vests” representatives announced they will not go to a meeting with Philippe planned the following day – later cancelled – as some say they have received death threats. Still tensions due to blockages of roads, shopping centres and fuel depots continues

Tax Increases suspended by six months

On December 4, the government decided to address the issue of proposed hike on petrol and diesel taxes. Next day (December 5), Macron announces that all planned fuel tax hikes for 2019 will be scrapped. The prime minister announced that planned tax increases on petrol and diesel on January 1 will be suspended for six months and hikes in regulated electricity and gas prices will be frozen during the winter. However, he ruled out re-imposing a “fortune tax” on high-earners. These announcements were insufficient to quell the protests. The “yellow vests” reject the moves as insufficient and press ahead with plans for a fourth day of protests on Saturday, December 8.The government fears the new protests could lead to a new explosion of violence, anticipating participation by the far left and far right. Meanwhile Farmers say they are planning to hold demonstrations next week, to support their own demands.

The Fourth day of protests

The Fourth day of protests took place on December 8, despite announcement by the government to address petrol and diesel price issue. For the fourth day of protests on Saturday, 89,000 security force members were deployed, including 8,000 in Paris. Armoured vehicles were also mobilised in the capital. The government, as well as most opposition parties and unions, called for calm. On the eve of a demonstration, “yellow vest” representatives had advised against demonstrating in Paris where museums, monuments, big shops and many metro stations will be closed.

Today thousands of people turned up to oppose Tommy Robinson’s march, claiming it “vastly” outnumbered those on the Brexit Betrayal march by nearly five to one. Britain today is divided on the issue of Brexit. The Betrayal March was simultaneously followed by counter betrayal march. It is high time that students understand and know about Brexit and recent developments.

What is Brexit?

Brexit is short for “British exit” – and is the word people use to talk about the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU (European Union).

What is the EU?

The EU is a group of 28 countries which trade with each other and allow anyone to move easily between the countries to live and work (click here if you want to see the full list).

The UK joined the EU, then known as the EEC (European Economic Community), in 1973.

Why is the UK leaving?

A public vote – called a referendum – was held on Thursday 23 June 2016 when voters were asked just one question – whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union.

The Leave side won (by nearly 52% to 48%) but the exit didn’t happen straight away – it’s going to happen on 29 March 2019.

What has happened so far?

The vote was just the start. Since then, negotiations have been taking place between the UK and the other EU countries.

The discussions have been mainly over the “divorce” deal, which sets out exactly how the UK leaves the EU – not what will happen after it leaves.

This deal is known as the withdrawal agreement.

What has been agreed?

The UK and the EU have come up with this withdrawal agreement about how the UK leaves the EU.

It covers some of these key points:

• How much money the UK will have to pay the EU in order to break the partnership – that’s about £39bn
• What will happen to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU, and equally what will happen to EU citizens living in the UK
• It suggests a way of avoiding the return of a physical border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

A length of time, called the transition period, has been agreed to allow the UK and EU to make a trade deal and to give businesses the time to adjust.

That means that if the withdrawal agreement gets the green light, there will be no huge changes between 29 March 2019 and 31 December 2020.

Another, much shorter, document has also been drawn up that gives an overview of what the UK and EU’s future relationship will be in the longer term.

This is the political declaration. However, neither side has to stick exactly to what it says – it is a set of ambitions for the future talks.

What happens next?

Now that leaders of the other 27 EU countries have signed off the withdrawal agreement and political declaration, UK Prime Minister Theresa May needs to persuade MPs in her own Parliament to back it.

A vote will take place on 11 December.

The deal also needs to be approved by the European Parliament – one of the organisations which helps make EU laws.

Its 751 members (known as MEPs) come from the EU and are elected in their own countries.

The European Parliament will vote on the deal early next year and the members are expected to follow their leaders by backing the deal.

Will the deal get through the UK Parliament?

Well, at the moment it looks like it… might not.

Mrs May doesn’t have enough support from her own Conservative MPs or MPs from other parties.

There are a broad range of complaints, many of which are about the deal failing to give the UK control back from the EU.

• More on what’s likely to happen when MPs have their say

What happens if Parliament rejects the deal?

It’s not very clear.

The default position in this case would be for the UK to leave without a deal.

But the government would have up to 21 days to suggest a way forward to Parliament.

MPs would have the power to make changes to the new plans.

This could mean MPs avert a no-deal Brexit or an unpopular plan B from the government.

It could also allow them to express support for an alternative approach to Brexit.

Anything MPs vote for would still have to be put into law by the government.

So we definitely leave on 29 March 2019?

It is written into law that the UK will be leaving on that date at 11pm UK time.

But if there is no deal, or Parliament rejects the deal, it is impossible to say with any certainty what will happen next.

The deadline of 29 March 2019 could be extended.

The EU says all 28 EU members would have to agree for that to happen, but a top European law officer has said the UK could cancel Brexit without the agreement of others.

Other possibilities (explained here in more detail) include the prime minister being allowed to have a second go at getting her deal accepted by Parliament.

Or one other suggestion is a fresh referendum, possibly asking voters whether they approve of the deal, rather than re-running the original vote.

What happens if we leave without a deal?

“No deal” means the UK would have failed to agree a withdrawal agreement.

That would mean there would be no transition period after 29 March 2019, and EU laws would stop applying to the UK immediately (more on that here).

The government has started planning for this potential situation.

It has published a series of guides – which cover everything from pet passports to the impact on electricity supplies.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says it will be a “national disaster” if the UK leaves without a deal.

But other MPs have played down the warnings of chaos and want a “clean break” from the EU.

Anything else I should know?

Northern Ireland has featured heavily in discussions about Brexit.

Both the UK and the EU want to avoid a physical border – with guard posts and checks – between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

But trying to find a way to avoid this if the UK leaves the EU without agreeing a trade deal has proved problematic.

So they’ve agreed to put in place a backstop – that’s a sort of safety net to make sure a hard border never happens.

It would mean that Northern Ireland – but not the rest of the UK – would still follow some EU rules on things such as food products.

The Northern Ireland “backstop” is meant to be a last resort – the prime minister insists that if all goes as planned it will never be used.

The US- China trade war caught momentum since the beginning of 2018 as US president Donald Trump started taking measures to implement his promise during electoral campaign. He had promised to pressurise China to rectify trade distortions such as US high trade deficit with China (approx $300 billion) and lack of market access to US exports due to various restrictions and condition of technology transfer imposed on American companies investing in China. Trump had promised in his campaign to fix China’s “longtime abuse of the broken international system and unfair practices”.

The US has introduced tariffs on goods imported from China and China has retaliated by increasing tariffs on imports of American products. Starting in January 2018 the U.S imposed a tariff on solar panel imports, most of which are manufactured in China. On July 6, the U.S. specifically targeted China by imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion of imported Chinese goods as part of Trump’s tariffs policy, which then led China to respond with similarly sized tariffs on U.S. products. A tariff on an additional $16 billion of Chinese imports was added in mid August, with China responding proportionately. A further tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods is to go into effect on September 24, 2018 to which China plans to respond to with tariffs on $60 billion of US goods. The Trump administration said the tariffs were necessary to protect intellectual property of U.S. businesses, and to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China.

The U.S. administration is relying partly on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to prevent what it claims are unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property. This gives the president the authority to unilaterally impose fines or other penalties on a trading partner if it is deemed to be unfairly harming U.S. business interests. Trump had already, in August 2017, opened a formal investigation into attacks on the intellectual property of the U.S. and its allies, the theft of which cost the U.S. alone an estimated $225–600 billion a year.

The goods affected by trade war between the US and China and the timeline is as follows:

Solar Panels- President Trump placed a 30% tariff on foreign solar panels on January 23, 2018, to be reduced to 15% after four years. China, the world leader in solar panel manufacture, decried the tariffs.

Washing Machine– On same day (Jan 2, 2018), tariffs of 20% were placed on washing machines for the first 1.2 million units imported during the year. In 2016, China exported $425 million worth of washers to the United States.

1,300 categories of new Chinese products charged with tariff in March 2018 – Trump asked the United States Trade Representative (USTR) investigate applying tariffs on US$50-60 billion worth of Chinese goods, on March 22. He relied on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 for doing so, stating that the proposed tariffs were “a response to the unfair trade practices of China over the years”, including theft of U.S. intellectual property. Over 1,300 categories of Chinese imports were listed for tariffs, including aircraft parts, batteries, flat-panel televisions, medical devices, satellites, and various weapons.

China retaliated in April 2018 by putting higher tariffs on 128 American products- China responded on April 2 by imposing tariffs on 128 products it imports from America, including aluminum, airplanes, cars, pork, and soybeans (which have a 25% tariff), as well as fruit, nuts, and steel piping (15%). On April 5, Trump responded saying that he was considering another round of tariffs on an additional $100 billion of Chinese imports as Beijing retaliates. The next day the World Trade Organization received request from China for consultations on new U.S. tariffs.

Efforts of reconciliation

China promised to help reduce US trade deficit in May 2018 – Vice Premier Liu He, top economic adviser to Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping, visited Washington from May 15 to 19 for further trade talks. It was reported on May 20 that Chinese officials had agreed to “substantially reduce” America’s trade deficit with China by committing to “significantly increase” its purchases of American goods. As a result, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that “We are putting the trade war on hold”. White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro, however, said that there was no “trade war,” but that it was a “trade dispute, fair and simple. We lost the trade war long ago.”

May 2018: further tightening by the US AFTER FAILED RECONCILIATION

25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods – The White House announced on May 29 that it would impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods with “industrially significant technology;” the full list of products affected to be announced by June 15. It also planned to impose investment restrictions and enhanced export controls on certain Chinese individuals and organizations to prevent them from acquiring U.S. technology. China said it would discontinue trade talks with Washington if it imposed trade sanctions.”

June 15 : Announcement of the US for more tightening

On June 15, Trump declared in a short White House statement that the United States would impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese exports. $34 billion would start July 6, with a further $16 billion to begin at a later date. China’s Commerce Ministry accused the United States of launching a trade war and said China would respond in kind with similar tariffs for US imports, starting on July 6. Three days later, the White House declared that the United States would impose additional 10% tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports if China retaliated against these U.S. tariffs. The list of products included in this round of tariffs was released on July 11 and was set to be implemented within 60 days.

China’s retaliation in July 2018

China retaliated almost immediately, threatening its own tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. goods, and claimed the United States had “launched a trade war.” Import and export markets in a number of nations feared the tariffs would disrupt supply chains which could “ripple around the globe.”

American tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods came into effect on July 6, 2018. China imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods of a similar value. The tariffs accounted for 0.1% of the global gross domestic product. On July 10, U.S. released an initial list of the additional $200 billion of Chinese goods that would be subject to a 10% tariff. China vowed to retaliate with additional tariffs on American goods worth $60 billion annually two days later.

Trade war intensifies in August 2018

On August 8 the Office of the United States Trade Representative published it’s finalized list of 279 Chinese goods, worth $16 Billion, to be subject to a 25% tariff from August 23. China responded with its own tariffs of equal value when the American tariffs were implemented on August 23. On August 14 China filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), claiming that US tariffs on foreign solar panels clash with WTO ruling and have destabilised the international market for solar PV products. China claimed the resulting impact directly harmed China’s legitimate trade interests.

Reconciliation effort fails again

US Treasury Under Secretary David Malpass and Chinese Commerce Vice Minister Wang Shouwen met on August 22 in Washington DC in a bid to open up dialogue in response to the intensifying trade war, yet discussions ended with no resolution. By August 23, US implemented a further 25% of tariffs on $16 billion of goods as promised, which was reciprocated by China. China filed a new WTO complaint against the US as a result of this tariff escalation.

America puts additional tariffs in September 2018

On September 17 the US announced its 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would begin on September 24, increasing to 25% by the end of the year. They also threatened tariffs on an additional $267 billion worth of imports if China retaliates, which China promptly did on September 18 with 10% tariffs on $60 billion of US imports. So far, China has either imposed or proposed tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. goods, representing most of its imports of American products.

The unending trade waris likely to affect global growth rate having spillover impact on trade, investment and employment. According to experts this does not augur well either for the economies or for the people. The producers and consumers both stand to lose and the green shoots of recovery after the global recession may be scuttled again. A negotiated solution is necessary to avert adverse consequences of the trade war which has the potential to drag most of the big economies in the whirlpool and quagmire of recession again.

Yemen is at present bruised because of ongoing political instability, civil war, water crisis and Malaria. The conflict has its roots in the failure of a political transition supposed to bring stability to Yemen following an Arab Spring uprising that forced its longtime authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to hand over power to his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, in 2011. President Hadi struggled to deal with a variety of problems, including attacks by al-Qaeda, a separatist movement in the south, the continuing loyalty of many military officers to Mr Saleh, as well as corruption, unemployment and food insecurity. The Houthis and security forces loyal to Mr Saleh – who is thought to have backed his erstwhile enemies in a bid to regain power – then attempted to take control of the entire country, forcing Mr Hadi to flee abroad in March 2015. Alarmed by the rise of a group they believed to be backed militarily by regional Shia power Iran, Saudi Arabia and eight other mostly Sunni Arab states began an air campaign aimed at restoring Mr Hadi’s government. The coalition received logistical and intelligence support from the US, UK and France.

The Yemeni Crisis began with the 2011–12 revolution against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had led Yemen for more than two decades. After protests Saleh resigned in 2012, the government led by Saleh’s former vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi struggled to unite the fractious political landscape of the country and fend off threats both from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Houthi militants that had been waging a protracted insurgency in the north for years. Political instability and civil war have continued since 2012 and it still continues unabated.

Background

Yemen started simmering after Arab Spring broke in Tunisia. The wave of protests arrived soon in Yemen after the Tunisian Revolution. Yemen was a poor country with a government widely acknowledged to be corrupt, with a large number of weapons in private hands. By 2011, the country was already facing challenges from al Qaeda-linked militants and separatists in the south and Zaydi Shia rebels in the north. Yemen had only been unified since 1990, and deep divisions persisted between the north and south. Popular protests broke out in early 2011, led by both secular and Islamist opposition groups. Longtime rebel groups like the Houthis and the Southern Movement also participated in the protests. Saleh responded with a violent crackdown, and the country nearly disintegrated into an all-out civil war as several army elements broke with the government and joined the protesters, beginning in March. Saleh quit after arbitration of the Gulf Co-operation Council. As part of the deal, the opposition agreed to allow Hadi to stand unopposed for the presidency in 2012.

Houthi fighters’ assault and political instability

In 2014, Houthi fighters swept into the capital of Sana’a and forced Hadi to negotiate a “unity government” with other political factions. The rebels continued to apply pressure on the weakened government until, after his presidential palace and private residence came under attack from the militant group, Hadi resigned along with his ministers in January 2015. The following month, the Houthis declared themselves in control of the government, dissolving Parliament and installing an interim Revolutionary Committee led by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a cousin of Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

Hadi claimed power from exile

It was reported that Hadi had “fled rebel forces in the city of Aden” and subsequently “arrived in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh” as “Saudi authorities began air strikes in Yemen”. Hadi later declared that he remains Yemen’s legitimate president, proclaimed the country’s temporary capital, and called on loyal government officials and members of the military to rally to him.  Civil War subsequently erupted between Hadi’s government and the Houthis. Since 2017 the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) has also fought against the government.

Conflict between Houthis and Salafis continued

Hadi visited the United States, a key overseas ally, in July 2013. The U.S. also lifted a ban on transferring detainees from its Guantanamo Bay detention camp in Cuba to Yemen. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia deported as many as 300,000 to 400,000 Yemeni migrant workers to their home country during 2013, causing an influx of poor, landless Yemenis into northern Yemen. Meanwhile the conflict between Houthis and Salafis continued. In a dramatic turn of events, the rebel Houthis took broad control of northern Yemen, including the capital of Sana’a itself, in 2014. The Houthis achieved victory in Saada when the Yemeni government brokered a deal under which Salafi fighters and their families were evacuated to the neighboring Al Hudaydah Governorate. Fighting in the Amran Governorate intensified during the year, with clashes between Houthis and supporters of the Islamist Islah Party eventually leading to a Houthi takeover of the entire governorate. The conflict later spread to the Sana’a Governorate.

Houthi Coup and UN negotiations

The Houthis began protesting against Hadi’s government to demand concessions in order to resolve a years-long insurgency they had been waging against the Yemeni state in mid-2014. The uprising escalated dramatically as Houthi fighters swept into Sana’a, the capital, and effectively seized control of the city from the Yemeni military within a couple of days in September. The forces of General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmer surrendered to the Houthis after a brief fight. Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former president, was widely suspected of aiding the Houthis behind the scenes and helping pave the way for their takeover.

UN tried to help negotiations between the warring factions. However, its negotiations were fruitless, and a Houthi ultimatum to Yemen’s political factions to find a solution was not met. Later, the Houthis declared themselves in total control of the Yemeni government, dissolving parliament and installing a Revolutionary Committee led by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi to lead the state in an interim capacity. The announcement sparked protests in Sana’a and other cities, especially in the south.

Post-coup developments and combined action against the Houthi Rebels

In 2015 the Houthis established a new government in Sana’a while Hadi retreated with his supporters to Aden, and later Saudi Arabia. The Arab League, led by the Saudis, began a bombing campaign and mobilization of various armed forces in the region for a possible invasion.

Saudi Arabia and several other countries announced (2016) that they had begun military operations in Yemen against Houthi rebels. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates issued a statement along with Saudi Arabia saying their goal is to “repel Houthi aggression” in Yemen. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan are also members of the coalition. In addition to airstrikes against targets throughout Yemen, which the General People’s Congress blamed for causing dozens of civilian casualties, Egyptian warships reportedly shelled a Houthi column as it advanced toward Aden and Saudi and Houthi forces traded artillery and rocket fire across the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

The 8 October 2016 attack by the Saudi Arabian-led coalition killed at least 140 people and injured more than 600 in Sana’a. This was one of the single worst death tolls in the two-year war. Saudi Arabia and its allies accepted the internal review’s finding, by the Joint Incidents Assessment Team (JIAT), that the coalition’s bombardment of this funeral ceremony was based on faulty information, i.e., that this was a gathering of armed Houthi leaders.

Water Crisis aggravates the political crisis

Yemen faced severe water crisis in these years. Yemen’s political instability has been partly aggravated by the severe ecological crisis in the country. The average Yemeni has access to only 140 cubic meters of water per year for all uses, (101 gallons per day) while the Middle Eastern average is 1000 m3/yr, and the internationally defined threshold for water stress is 1700 cubic meters per year. Yemen’s groundwater is the main source of water in the country but the water tables have dropped severely leaving the country without a viable source of water. Even before the revolution, Yemen’s water situation had been described as increasingly dire by experts who worried that Yemen would be the “first country to run out of water”. Agriculture in Yemen takes up about 90% of water in Yemen even though it only generates 6% of GDP – however a large portion of Yemenis are dependent on small-scale subsistence agriculture. This water insecurity has a direct impact on political stability. The country’s Interior Ministry has estimated that across the country, water and land related disputes kill 40,000 people a year – more than terrorism.

Malnutrition and hunger in Yemen are the worst outcome of civil war

In Yemen, an estimated 22.2 million people require humanitarian assistance in order to meet their basic needs, including 17.8 million people who require emergency food assistance, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Due to ongoing conflict, Yemen faces the largest food security emergency in the world, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET reports that 3.5 million people across Yemen face Emergency (IPC 4) levels of food insecurity, and famine is possible if food imports drop or conflict further restricts markets and humanitarian access.

In November 2017, a Saudi Arabia-led military coalition of countries involved in the Yemen conflict enacted a blockade of all of Yemen’s ports. While the coalition has since re-opened the ports to humanitarian and commercial shipments, import levels have not returned to pre-blockade levels as of March 2018. Even in the absence of additional disruptions, FEWS NET reports that certain populations face the threat of Catastrophe (IPC 5) conditions in 2018 as vulnerable people exhaust their coping capacities, such as selling assets or incurring debt to buy food, and are unable to access adequate food to meet their basic needs. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a standardized tool that aims to classify the severity and magnitude of food insecurity. The IPC scale, which is comparable across countries, ranges from Minimal (IPC 1) to Famine (IPC 5).

In Fiscal Year (FY) 2018, USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (FFP) has contributed $201 million to date to support UN partners in Yemen, including the UN World Food Program (WFP). WFP targets approximately 7 million severely food-insecure individuals with in-kind food assistance and food vouchers across 20 of Yemen’s 22 governorates. Since the beginning of FY 2017, FFP has supported UN and other non-governmental organization (NGO) implementing partners with more than $550 million in emergency food assistance, including the provision of U.S.-sourced wheat, peas and vegetable oil, locally- and regionally-procured food and food vouchers to Yemen’s most vulnerable populations. FFP support also provides therapeutic nutritional products to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) for the treatment of children suffering from severe acute malnutrition in Yemen. Additionally, FFP supports the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as the lead coordinating body for the cluster of international organizations responding to food insecurity in Yemen

Cholera Epidemic

A severe cholera epidemic had begun in Yemen during the civil war. In July 2017, the United Nations Humanitarian Relief coordinator said that over 320,000 cases had been reported. He also blamed the epidemic on the war and on international forces supporting the combatants. As of October 2017, it was described as already the worst cholera outbreak in recorded history, with over 800,000 cases.

2018 election for PM in Malaysia

In a historic election upset in a country that has been governed by just one coalition for decades, a Malaysian opposition bloc led by the 92-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad swept to a majority in national parliamentary elections. The opposition had won 122 seats in Parliament, 10 more than needed to form a new government.  Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars in government funds, gave an emotional national address on May 10, saying that he would “accept the verdict of the people.” In the Malaysian general election, 2018, Barisan Nasional were defeated for the first time in the nation’s history, winning 79 seats out of 222 in the Dewan Rakyat. Najib accepted the results of the election and promised to help facilitate a smooth transition of power.

 Following a decisive victory for Pakatan Harapan in the 2018 election, Mahathir was sworn-in as Prime Minister on 10 May 2018. At 92, he is the world’s oldest sitting head of government. He is the first Malaysian Prime Minister not to represent the Barisan Nasional (or preceding Alliance). He is also the first Malaysian Prime Minister to serve from two different parties and on non-consecutive terms. After leaving office, Mahathir became a strident critic of his hand-picked successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2006 and later, Najib Razak in 2015. His son Mukhriz Mahathir was the Chief Minister of Kedah until early 2016. On 29 February 2016, Mahathir quit UMNO in light of UMNO’s support for the actions of Prime Minister Najib Razak, in spite of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal. On 9 September 2016, the Malaysian United Indigenous Party was officially registered as a political party, with Mahathir as chairman. On 8 January 2018, Mahathir was announced as the Pakatan Harapan coalition candidate for Prime Minister for the 2018 general election, in a plan to pardon Anwar Ibrahim and hand a role to him if the campaign was successful.

With victory, Mr. Mahathir, who led the country for 22 years before retiring at 78, would return to power as the world’s oldest elected government leader. Mr. Mahathir had left Mr. Najib’s party over the financial scandal and joined the opposition to help oust him.   Among the important jobs that Mahathir is expected to do is to stitch together a governing coalition that includes followers of Anwar Ibrahim, his onetime nemesis, who was released from prison after serving five years on charges that were widely seen as politically motivated. Mr. Najib waged a desperate election-eve attempt to gain support, promising that if his coalition wins he would exempt everyone 26 or younger from paying taxes and declare two public holidays next week, but he lost.

Challenges before the new government

Malaysia is grappling with many economic challenges. Its Debt-GDP ratio is described as unsustainable while its fiscal deficit is also high. Malaysian economy is also a victim of crony capitalism since the old regime and the country is in need of economic reforms to keep on the path of sustained and interrupted growth.  Over the years, former PM Mr. Najib has been accused of having ties to a murder, taking kickbacks from the purchase of military hardware and helping concoct a criminal prosecution against a rival. The image of the government in the past was entrenched in corruption.
Najib Razak, former Prime Minister who lost in the 2018 election, faced allegations of  siphoning off billions of dollars from sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.

Moody’s Investors Service has maintained (June 13) its estimate of Malaysia’s direct government debt at 50.8% of GDP in 2017. It said its assessment of contingent liability risks posed by non-financial sector public institutions has also not changed following some statements by the new Federal Government led by Pakatan Harapan which won the 14th General Election.  It pointed out that the new administration’s treatment of large infrastructure projects that may be placed under review but have benefited from  government-guaranteed loans in the past, and outstanding debt from state  fund, 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB, unrated), will play an important role in determining risks that contingent liabilities pose to the credit profile.

Background

Najib’s tenure as Prime Minister has been marked by economic liberalisation measures, such as cuts to government subsidies, loosening of restrictions on foreign investment, and reductions in preferential measures for ethnic Malays in business. After the 2013 election his government was marked by the pursuit of a number of its critics on sedition charges, the imprisonment of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim following a conviction for sodomy, the implementation of a Goods and Services Tax (GST), and an ongoing scandalinvolving state investment firm 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) which led to rallies calling for Najib’s resignation, spearheaded by the grassroots movement Bersih. These protests culminated in the Malaysian Citizens’ Declaration by Mahathir Mohamad, Pakatan Harapan and NGO’s to oust Najib. Najib’s response to the corruption accusations has been to tighten his grip on power by replacing the deputy prime minister, suspending two newspapers and pushing through parliament a controversial National Security Council Bill that provides the prime minister with unprecedented powers. Najib’s various subsidy cuts have contributed to soaring living costs, while fluctuating oil prices as well as fallout from the 1MDB scandal have led to a steady depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit.

1MDB Scandal

The 1Malaysia Development Berhad Scandal involves came to light in 2015 in Malaysia as a political scandal occurring involving former Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, who allegedly channeled over RM 2.67 billion (nearly $700 million) from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), a government-run strategic development company, to his personal bank accounts. The event triggered widespread criticisms among Malaysians, with many calling for Najib Razak’s resignation – including Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad who has served as the fourth and now the seventh Prime Minister. Political leader Anwar Ibrahim has openly questioned the credentials of 1MDB. He told Parliament that according to the records held by the companies commission, the company “has no business address and no appointed auditor.” According to its publicly filed accounts, 1MDB has nearly RM 42 billion ($11.73 billion) in debt. Some of this debt resulted from a $3 billion state-guaranteed 2013 bond issue led by Goldman Sachs, who is believed to have made as much as $300 million in fees from that deal alone, although it disputes this figure. Conference of Rulers in Malaysia has called for the investigations by the government to be completed as soon as possible, saying that the issue is causing a crisis of confidence in Malaysia.

After the 14th general election, the newly elected Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad said there was enough evidence to reopen a probe on the 1MDB scandal. Having filed complaints alleging that more than $ 4.5 billion was diverted from 1MDB and laundered through a web of shell companies and bank accounts located in the United States and elsewhere, the U.S. Department of Justice said it would continue to pursue investigations into 1MDB and looked forward to working with Malaysian law enforcement authorities. On 18 May 2018, Malaysian police seized a huge haul of designer handbags, many of them stuffed with cash and jewelry, in searches of homes and offices linked to Najib Razak. Later he signed a pipeline deal with China which was also suspected as a deal to garner money to pay off the debt taken from 1MDB sovereign fund in an unauthorized manner. The pipeline deal was one of a series of big-ticket, Beijing-backed projects signed during Najib’s leadership, fuelling suspicions China was helping the scandal-mired leader pay off debts racked up by the stricken fund.

The US- North Korea Summit took place on March 12 at Capella Singapore hotel in Sentosa Island after months of diplomatic twists and turns indicating some thaw in icy relationship, leaving the question wide open how long the agreement lasts and whether it is implemented on real ground. The two leaders held one-on-one meeting for around 45-minutes with just translators present. In the summit North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agreed to work toward “complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula” in return for security guarantees from the U.S. At the end of Summit a joint statement was issued by the two leaders which said that Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new relations between the two countries and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. The document was signed after the two leaders had a one-on-one meeting, with translators only, followed by an expanded meeting including their top aides and a working lunch. US President Donald Trump described the summit as “honest, direct and productive.”
The summit meet indicated readiness to discover points of convergence of interest, yet the give and take by the two countries seems to be just a beginning. Although Mr. Trump said that the U.S. would end joint military exercises with South Korea, the sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear tests will remain for now. The first concession the US agreed is a friendly diplomatic gesture and fulfills one of the major demands of North Korea, the economic sanctions would still be in place to create pressure on the country to initiate denuclearization process. The President also committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea), and Chairman Kim Jong-un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It said the two sides committed to recovering POW/MIA (prisoners of war and missing in action) remains including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
Later, they held delegation-level talks. Mr. Kim was asked at least three times if he would give up his nuclear weapons. In response, he just smiled. “There will be challenges ahead but we will work with Trump. We overcame all kinds of skepticism and speculation about this summit and I believe that this is good for the peace.” Mr. Trump, however, said the U.S. sanctions would remain in place until Washington had seen progress. When asked about North Korea’s future economic model, Mr. Trump said it is for the country and its people to decide. He pointed out the real estate potential of its “great beaches” which can be seen on missile test footage.