The latest general elections in Nepal elected the current Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on 25 December 2022. Pre and post election dynamics saw making and unmaking of ideologically untenable coalitions among political parties of Nepal which had different ideologies. The election of Prime Minister passed through several twists and turns, which have not settled down yet even after the election of Prime Minister.
General Elections
General elections were held in Nepal on 20 November 2022 to elect the 275 members of the House of Representatives. There were two ballots in the election; one to elect 165 members from single-member constituencies via First Past the Post (PFPTP), and the other to elect the remaining 110 members from a single nation-wide constituency via party-list proportional representation. This was the second round of federal and provincial elections to be held in Nepal since the promulgation of the constitution in 2015.
Nepal democracy has moved forward but it has to go a long way before it matures. It becomes clear from an analysis of the election results and formation of government. Now Pushpa Kumar Dahal heads a ruling coalition in Nepal despite winning only 11% of the total votes. About 61% voters voted in the election this time as compared to 71% in 2017 that threw a hung parliament. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC) won only 32 seats in the 275-member lower house of parliament. Although, the Nepali Congress (NC) won the largest number of seats, its leader Sher Bahadur Deuba could not be the premier for the sixth time because he lacked the requisite majority. NC won only 89 seats in the federal parliament. CPN-UML, CPN-MC, the National Independent Party (NIP), and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) rounded off the top five, winning 78, 32, 20, and 14 seats, respectively. The break-up of the seats won by different political parties indicates towards a highly fractious political scenario, which is not good for a stable government.
Unprincipled Political Alliance
Before the elections there were two coalitions in the contest: the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC), and the opposition alliance led by Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). The pre election coalitions reflected a hankering among all political parties to return to power by all means, fair and foul. Political parties formed alliances which were poles apart in political ideologies. The alliance partners are strange bedfellows. The Prachanda-led MC joined hands with the NC, which it called earlier a party of the bourgeoisie Once NC leader Deuba the then Prime Minister was deghastly against Prachanda’s head during the peak of the Maoist insurgency. On the other hand the UML joined hands with the Janata Samajbadi party (JSP), which it opposed earlier because JSP advocated for Madhesi rights. The UML which has a history of fighting against monarchy also joined hands with the Hindu nationalist and royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). The driving force of the new alliances was convenience to win more seats in the election rather than principle.
In fact even before the elections were announced, vested interests were involved in a power game. Nepal’s ruling alliance’s agenda was to keep Oli and the UML out of power. Oli had earlier attempted to dissolve the parliament to isolate Prachanda (and Madhav Kumar Nepal, chairman of Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist, a splinter of the UML). This led to a ruling coalition led by NC. Despite ideological differences, political expediency kept the ruling coalition together till new elections were announced.
Hung Parliament
The new elections which took place on November 20 threw a hung parliament. The newly-elected parliamentarians took the oath of office on December 22. Pushpa Kumar Dahal was able to cobble a new post election coalition to become Prime Minister of Nepal. Nepal’s three-time former prime KP Sharma Oli led CPN-UML-led alliance and NC coalition failed to muster majority.
Dahal wins vote of confidence
On 10 January 2023, Dahal won a motion of confidence with 268 out of 270 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives, where he was supported by the ruling coalition as well as the opposition Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, Nepal. Dahal’s claim for prime minister was supported by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), Rastriya Swatantra Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, People’s Socialist Party, Nepal, Janamat Party and Nagarik Unmukti Party, alongside his own Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). Prime Minister Dahal took his oath of office alongside three deputy prime ministers and four ministers on 26 December 2022.
Looking Forward
The elections could not end turbulence in Nepal politics. Factionalism and strange bed fellows have constituted the government and in the coming days Nepal may struggle for making political consensus on important issues, especially economic recovery and development. Stability in Nepali democracy may become victim of opportunism. It would depend how the political leaders put Nepal and the people of Nepal above their political agenda. Many observers feel that the leftist parties in Nepal are being manipulated by external forces. However, Nepal at this juncture, requires to pursue its own development goals by maintaining a balanced diplomatic relation with its two giant neighbours and other development partners.
The first and foremost challenge for the new Nepal government is to achieve its potential growth rate. At present the state of economy is far behind its actual potential. According to the Word Bank Development Update in April, after the strong rebound in FY22, economic growth slowed in Nepal in H1FY23 reflecting tighter monetary policy, higher international prices, and the continuation of import restriction measures. Real GDP growth slowed in Q1FY23 despite positive growth in the services and agricultural sectors, as the industrial sector contracted. A decrease in construction activities, the lower registration of new businesses, slower credit growth to the private sector, and lower imports of intermediate and capital goods suggest a decline in private investment during H1FY23. Inflation has been broad-based, with food prices expanding by 7.5 percent y-o-y and non-food price inflation increasing to 8.7 percent (y-o-y) in H1FY23. The current account deficit widened from 7.8 percent of GDP in FY21 to a historic high of 12.8 percent of GDP in FY22, associated with a drop in remittances and a larger trade deficit.
The World Bank forecast projects growth declining to 4.1 percent in FY23 before accelerating once again to 4.9 percent growth in FY24 and further to 5.5 percent growth by FY25, close to the country’s estimated long-term potential growth rate of 5.4 percent. But this would require political stability as well as consensus on policy issues. The nature of coalition supporting the government consists of seeds on instability and it elicits little hope. Nepal has a long road to go.