Ukraine was part of erstwhile Soviet Union which collapsed in 1989. Ukraine gained its independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Following its independence, Ukraine declared itself a neutral state; it formed a limited military partnership with Russia and other CIS countries while also establishing a partnership with NATO in 1994. Neutral state status of Ukraine meant that it announced its dissociation with cold war era allegiance with Russia and despite establishing new partnership with the US.
Despite this claim, there remained a rift between Ukraine and Russia on the issue of a part of bordering areas where there was substantial pro- Russian population. The crisis became explicit during 2013–14 Euromaidan protests against Ukraine government’s efforts for integration of Ukraine into the European Union. Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was compelled to suspend (21 November 2013) the implementation of an association agreement with the European Union. The decision sparked mass protests from proponents of the agreement. The protests, in turn, precipitated a revolution that led to Yanukovych’s ousting in February 2014. The ousting sparked unrest in the largely Russophone eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, from where Yanukovych had drawn most of his support. Later a Ukraine-Russia war broke out as Russia started supporting the pro Russian population in Crimea, an autonomous region within Ukraine, subsequently annexing covertly the strategic and important places in the region.
Since then the situation in the region is tense. The involvement of super powers in the region has aggravated the tensions. While the US finds an important ally in Ukraine for its strategic interests in Europe, Russia sees it as its strategic backyard each of them intending to contain each other as rival powers. There has been several rounds of deliberations directly and indirectly to diffuse the situation, tension,, however, still remain.
After a meeting, G-7 Foreign Ministers issued a statement on December 12, 2021,about Ukraine reaffirming their unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the right of any sovereign state to determine its own future. They also commended Ukraine’s posture of restraint. They also called on Russia to de-escalate, pursue diplomatic channels, and abide by its international commitments on transparency of military activities as President Biden did in his call with President Putin on 7 December. The statement also reconfirmed G-7 countries’ support for the efforts of France and Germany in the Normandy Format to achieve full implementation of the Minsk Agreements in order to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine. They warned that any use of force to change borders is strictly prohibited under international law. Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response and that “We will intensify our cooperation on our common and comprehensive response.”
On January 10, With Russian troops gathering along Ukraine’s borders, American and Russian diplomats made clear after an intense round of negotiations in Jeneva that while the two sides would keep talking, they remain far from agreement on meeting each other’s security concerns. Russian officials said they told their American counterparts they had no plans to invade Ukraine, in a series of talks that lasted nearly eight hours. “There is no reason to fear some kind of escalatory scenario,” said Sergei A. Ryabkov, a Russian deputy foreign minister.
Latest development
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva (January 21, 2022) amid ongoing fears that Russia could invade neighboring Ukraine. The two diplomats met briefly at Hotel President Wilson, where they discussed whether diplomacy can still resolve the crisis. Although neither side expected a breakthrough deal from the talks, both Blinken and Lavrov opened the door to further dialogue. Blinken described the discussions as “frank and substantive,” calling it a “candid exchange of concerns and ideas.”
On the Russian side, Lavrov said following the meeting that Moscow will receive a written response to its “concrete” security demands “next week,” a promise that was confirmed by Blinken. The US and Russia would also be open to further discussions in the coming days. Lavrov described the talks as “constructive and useful.” The Russian envoy also said his country “never” threatened the Ukrainian people. Lavrov said Moscow has security concerns “not about invented threats, but real facts that no one hides — pumping Ukraine with weapons, sending hundreds of western military instructors.” Blinken said Russia should expect a “united, swift and severe” response if it attacks Ukraine and said the situation has reached a “critical moment.” He also called on Moscow to remove troops from Ukraine’s border region.
Background
Euromaidan
Euromaidan was a wave of demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine, which began on the night of 21 November 2013 with public protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv. The protests were sparked by the Ukrainian government’s decision to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European Union, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. The scope of the protests soon widened, with calls for the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych and his government. The protests, in turn, precipitated a revolution that led to Yanukovych’s ousting in February 2014. The ousting sparked unrest in the largely Russophone eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, from where Yanukovych had drawn most of his support.
Annexation of Crimea
On 1 March 2014, the Federation Council of the Russian Federation unanimously adopted a resolution on petition of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin to use military force on territory of Ukraine. The resolution was adopted several days later after the start of the Russian military operation on “Returning of Crimea”. Russia then annexed Crimea after a widely criticized local referendum which was organized by Russia after the capturing of the Crimean Parliament by the Russian “little green men” and in which the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea voted to join the Russian Federation. In April, 2014 demonstrations by pro-Russian groups in the Donbas area of Ukraine escalated into a war between the Ukrainian government and the Russian-backed separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. In August, Russian military vehicles crossed the border in several locations of Donetsk Oblast. The incursion by the Russian military was seen as responsible for the defeat of Ukrainian forces in early September.
Sanctions on Russia
Since 2014, the US has imposed multiple sanctions on Russia to punish it for its annexation of Crimea and its support for rebel groups waging a war in Eastern Ukraine. These steps have bled the Russian economy by about $50bn annually, according to research by the Atlantic Council. They’ve targeted oligarchs and organisations close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. But they have so far failed to deter Putin from “continuing to stir up trouble over Ukraine”, said David Cortright, director of the Global Policy Initiative at the University of Notre Dame’s Kroc Institute. Washington still has a slew of options for additional and tougher economic sanctions that it can impose on Moscow — impacting everything from billions of dollars of investment in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to the use of credit cards by ordinary Russians, but it appears not willing to escalate the tension further. If Russia still continues with its plan to go into war with Ukraine, the tolerance of the US and allies may reach their limits and they can think of imposing new sanctions. Analysts feel that these steps won’t affect Putin enough in the short-term tactical sense but in the long term, sanctions could crush the Russian economy. If Putin invades Ukraine, he will be staking Russia’s future on his actions in the present.
The Minsk Protocol
The Minsk Protocol is an agreement which sought to end war in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It was written in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of any status, by the then heads of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
The agreement, which followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the Donbas, aimed to implement an immediate ceasefire. It failed to stop fighting in Donbas, and was thus followed with a new package of measures, called Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015.